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| UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND THE KIRKUK EQUATION
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 Mustafa TOMBULOGLU
(Yorturk Cultural and Art Magazine November/December)
The US is envisaged to withdraw gradually from Iraq until 2011. According to the plans, 70 thousand of the 120 thousand American troops will be withdrawn from Iraq until the end of August 2010 and the rest at the end of 2011. The Iraqi National Parliament approved the New Election Law on November 08. Accordingly, general elections are scheduled for January 18, 2010. However, the results of general elections may shape the withdrawal plans of the US because having failed in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US does not want to leave the control of the region to Iran. The US will remain in the region by means of its military bases. The main objective is to maintain its political presence effectively.
The increasing factionalism between Sunni groups and the Kurds, and the emerging reaction from the Sunni Arab community against the Kurds cause concern both for the US and the Kurds. Having realized this, the Kurds of Northern Iraq now consider Turkey as a safe haven. The KDP Leader Masood Barzanis recent statements indicating cooperation with the Turkmen are not baseless. Should the Kurds be forced to choose in Kirkuk, it seems that they would opt for the Turkmen rather than the Arabs. One should remember that Kurds share the same fate with the Turkmen as a result of the pressures applied by the Baath regime. However, the KDP and the PUK have forged contacts with the Turkmen front parties. This, unfortunately, has caused political wounds that are difficult to heal today.
The leadership in Northern Iraq, on the other hand, condones Missionary and Judaist activities so as to feel itself safe against the Arabs. Having considered these activities as sources of threats, the Islamic parties in the region criticize the regional administration for their inaction. Thus, they are holding social activities and small scale conferences so as to raise the consciousness of local people. According to a statement of Ali Bapir, the Secretary General of the Kurdistan Islamic Group, MOSSAD and CIA have allocated special budgets so as to increase the Christian Missionary activities in Northern Iraq. The ADS Institution, an evangelical missionary, is distributing Kurdish Bibles in the region. The Government should openly say that we are Muslims, our religion is Islam and we are proud of it, says Bapir.
The developments have influenced the Kirkuk strategy of KDP and PUK. In the recent period, Kurdish groups have tended to consider the Kirkuk Issue as the establishment of border security and a crossing point to the south of Iraq, rather than as an issue of underground wealth. Oil is not the sole decisive factor anymore for the viewpoint towards Kirkuk. However, one should not ignore the fact that Israel would like to keep the Kirkuk issue as a trump card against Turkey. Kurdish groups may become hopeful to realize their ambitions over Kirkuk by the support they receive from Israel. As a matter of fact, this is why Kurds insisted using the 2009 electoral lists by which they had considerably changed the demography of Kirkuk once again for the elections in Kirkuk.
The KDP and the PUK initiated efforts to make Kurds, who are registered in Kirkuk and residing in the Kurdish region, to vote in Kirkuk regardless of their ration card records. It is stated that initially 500 families that are registered in Kirkuk and residing in Sulaymaniyah will cast their votes. Moreover, several banners have been hung allover downtown Kirkuk stating that a special status for Kirkuk is unacceptable. Meanwhile, in order to weaken the Goran (Change) List led by Nevshirvan Mustafa, Kurdish families are offered financial assistance and several promises have been made. Aggressive attitudes have been adopted against the Turkmen in Kirkuk. Turkmen and Arab youth are illegally taken into custody and taken outside Kirkuk without informing their families. For this reason, the Turkmen have the feeling that they can be harassed by the Kurds any time. The complaints they file are to no avail.
It should be known that such practices will bring the political process in Iraq to a dangerous stage. One should pay attention to the focus on the message that Kirkuk concerns all Iraqis not only the inhabitants of Kirkuk during the Election Law negotiations. Kurds, who rejected the offer that has been made for them, should not forget that they are Iraqis like the Arabs because the status of Kirkuk is highly important for the territorial integrity of Iraq. In case a single group is given authority for the administration of Kirkuk and the sides break the reconciliation, unpleasant developments emerge in Iraq.
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Posted on Thursday, November 19 @ 23:16:08 EET by orkun |
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